Field Poll: Most initiatives urged by governor have slim leads

By Gary Delsohn -- Bee Capitol Bureau
Published 2:15 am PST Thursday, February 24, 2005

A slim majority of registered voters supports most of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's "reform" proposals, according to a poll released Wednesday, but two-thirds oppose spending millions of dollars for a special election.

The latest statewide Field Poll shows what pollster Mark DiCamillo called "lukewarm" early support for Schwarzenegger's proposed initiatives, with the exception of merit pay for teachers, which drew support from 60 percent in the survey.

Schwarzenegger has said that unless the Legislature approves his proposals for merit pay, spending controls, a pension system overhaul, and a new way to draw legislative and congressional districts, he'll take the proposals directly to voters in a special election this fall.

"Except for the merit pay proposal, I'd characterize the support for the governor's proposals at this time as lukewarm," DiCamillo said. "With initiatives, the 'yes' side is usually hoping for higher numbers early on.

"So I'd say these are vulnerable proposals, especially with well-funded campaigns to oppose him, which I expect those will be. But I don't want to dismiss the strength of Arnold Schwarzenegger. He has surprised pollsters in the past, so we'll have to wait and see."

The results come one day after another Field Poll showed Schwarzenegger's approval rating had dropped from 65 percent to 55 percent over the past five months.

Registered voters, by a margin of 51 percent to 45 percent, said they approve of Schwarzenegger's plans for a special election "if the Legislature fails to act on his reform proposals."

The support is turned on its head, however, when voters are told the election could cost between $50 million and $70 million. Only 30 percent said they thought it was a good idea once they were told the potential costs.

At a campaign-style event at Cal Expo on Wednesday, Schwarzenegger said those costs were well worth it.

"The taxpayers despise the fact that billions and billions of dollars were spent in California by the legislators - by the big spenders - without asking them," he said.

"Of course, we'll have a special election that maybe cost a little bit of money, but nothing in comparison to the amount of money that was wasted. That's what the people are upset about. Not ... $60 million or whatever the amount for (an) extra election. You can't even compare the two. OK?"

His defense of the election costs came at an elaborately staged event designed to sell his budget-control proposal.

Just as he used phony bags of money loaded onto armored trucks to pitch his pension proposal in San Diego two weeks ago, Schwarzenegger created a made-for-television moment at Cal Expo.

Standing before a large replica of the California Capitol left over from the State Fair, Schwarzenegger grimaced as he appeared to struggle with a giant spigot flowing with what the governor's staff said was water dyed red to symbolize California's budget deficit.

As aides backstage flipped an electrical switch that stopped the "red ink," Schwarzenegger called for passage of his proposal to enact across-the-board budget cuts when state spending exceeds revenues.

Schwarzenegger said he didn't use taxpayer funds for any of the costs associated with the event, relying instead on campaign contributions.

Democrats have highlighted the election cost in their criticism of Schwarzenegger's plans, and Dave Jones, a Democratic assemblyman from Sacramento, was outside the Cal Expo event to comment.

"Californians are increasingly troubled by the governor's partisanship and stridency as we try to work together to solve our budget problem ...," Jones said. "Standing in front of a fountain and turning it on and off doesn't help."

Bonnie Hinojas, a 68-year-old Democrat and retired beauty shop owner from Fresno who responded to the poll, said she likes the idea of a special election as a "grand gesture to try and fix things."

But the cost of a special election, she said, "makes no sense when we don't have enough money to pay for things now. Something has to be done, but I'd say wait until it doesn't cost that much. I do think he's trying to do a good job, and I know it's a hard job."

On the spending plan the Republican governor chose to highlight Wednesday, the poll found 51 percent of registered voters now favor that idea, with 42 percent opposed and 7 percent having no opinion.

On merit pay, poll respondents were asked whether they support the proposal to "tie increases in the salaries of public school teachers to their classroom performance rather than to their years of service."

Sixty percent of registered voters said they favor the idea; 36 percent said they're against it.
"
The concept there seems very intuitively appealing to voters," DiCamillo said. "You should be paid for your performance. I think that's a common idea in most workplaces, but the problem in selling that will be in the details. How exactly are you going to institute merit pay? So we'll know more when we have those details."

According to the poll, nearly half of all registered voters - 48 percent - favor Schwarzenegger's proposal to have a panel of retired judges, instead of sitting legislators, draw election districts for Congress and the state Legislature.

And on Schwarzenegger's proposal to overhaul the pension system for new public employees, 51 percent of all registered voters said it's a good idea.

Schwarzenegger's now-abandoned plan to consolidate many state boards and commissions into "fewer but larger agencies" was favored by voters, 53 percent to 37 percent.

The telephone poll was conducted from Feb. 8-17, using a sample of 506 adults, including 404 registered voters.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.